Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Make History

Well, the Steelers did their job by beating the Redskins, so now everything points to an Obama victory.

Of course, the big question is: Are the polls accurate? If they are, Obama will win easily. As many analysts have mentioned, it all depends on Pennsylvania and Virginia. McCain essentially can’t win without Pennsylvania, and if the polls are not accurate, they will show up in those two states, where Obama has been over 50% for quite some time. If the polls have misread those states, we could be in for a long, nerve-racking night. If Obama takes PA and Virginia, it’s over.

Why could the polls be so inaccurate? Lots of reasons, this time around. Obama’s race continues to be a huge question mark. Also, exit polls the last two elections have been unreliable (supposedly because Republicans don't want to talk to pollsters, but I don't know that I completely buy that). Voter turnout, voter suppression and intimidation, registration purges and polling machine malfunctions can all play a role in a close election. One things in Obama’s favor is that most polls don’t include cell phones, which means young people are undercounted, which would favor Democrats on election day.

So, we’ll see. I fretted before the 2006 mid-term elections, and everything worked out fine then. Still, take nothing for granted. Go vote. If the margin is high enough, inaccurate polls and polling place shenanigans will not matter.

4 comments:

brownie said...

Don't forget your (former) home state of Indiana, now. Though a measly eleven electorals is all we have, it is a battleground state, and the last poll I saw here was a virtual dead heat between O vs. Mc.

Such being the case, and having considered the posibility that my vote might actually make a difference this time around, I, yes even the lowly I, despite all my hemming and hawing and biffledy baffledying, voted, repeat voted, today at precisely 7:01 in the AM. Can you believe it?

(or was it that I just didn't want to face the possibilty of having to vote the way you wanted me to for the rest of my life? Not sure)

Dan S said...

Wow Brownie. I didn't even know you were registered.

Congratulations! You are now allowed to complain for the next 4 years, no matter who wins.

Tim said...

Brownie,

You voted twice? ("voted, repeat voted.") That's making up for lost time. :)

Way to make a difference!

Joe K. said...

I looked closely at your ballot photo. It appears that you did not fill in the bubble completely. I hope you at least used a number 2 pencil.